In my review posted on Amazon.co.uk, I rated
“The Stock Market Bubble Bust Of 2015 And Beyond” by Michael Swanson
at the Four Stars level. This means I think it is Good.
Here is my book review.
The Bear Market Is Here – What Are You Going To Do?
In February 2016, many of the stock markets around the world have been redefined as bear markets as they have fallen at least 20% from their peak values. The underlying economies haven’t (yet) been recognised as in recessions but they are in a mess. Massive indebtedness risks turning the markets of the west into copies of Japan since the 1990s and don’t get me started on what might be happening in China.
Central bankers jumped in to save the finance world in 2008 and have continued their experimental management of the economies every since to delay the massive write-offs needed but have recreated bubbles in the stock market, bond markets and property markets.
I’ve stayed invested in the 2000 and 2008 bear markets but I’m not doing that this time because of my fear that the UK, USA and European stock markets will “do a Japan” and fall by 75% and not recover for 20 or more years.
This book helps in various ways:
– Using the 150 day and 200 day moving averages, you can spot which stages of the four stages, a market or investment is in – rising (bull), falling (bear) and the two turning points where the trend flat-lines for a period.
– Stressing the importance of portfolio design and the favourable impact on both returns and variability that is achieved through regular rebalancing on the portfolio back to pre-set percentages. (This rebalancing forces selling at high values and buy at low prices). I’d have liked to have seen more detail on this but I can point you to the great book explaining Harry Browne’s idea of the Permanent Portfolio – The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne’s Long-Term Investment Strategy.
– The poor prospects of the US economy as it becomes increasingly indebted and the actions the Federal Reserve will have to take to create inflation and keep interest rates at an affordable level. The author argues strongly for the need to invest in gold and gives plenty of information about investing in gold shares.
Rather than give you many of the answers, the book points you to other resources. On the basis of its price and availability through Kindle Unlimited, I’ve rated it as a four star book. It’s not the complete answer but, if it gets you thinking in the right ways, it’s well worth the time to read.
It is available to buy from Amazon.co.uk and Amazon.com.
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